Latest Thoughts

I've been looking into growth data given the current precarious situation.  France, Spain and Italy have good data which can be modelled reasonably, I'm having difficulty with the UK, I think it is unclear just now with perhaps changing instructions making modelling difficult, modelling several processes simultaneously is seldom easy.

I believe all of the other three countries are approaching the peak for deaths with expected numbers being approximately double what they will be in early April (2-4 maybe).  More to follow.

Please don't take these as any more than rough estimates, I am not an epidemiologist, we will have to see how accurate they are come late summer I believe.