Friday, April 10, 2020

Discussion of latest musings

The previous posted figure shows the coronavirus data deaths by country over the period of worst incidences and my fitted models.  It has been interesting to see how the curves have waxed and waned from day to day and how much the press has had a field day at the numbers.  What some people will do to sell a story, make a living etc. 

Lately we have found that the UK counting has been a bit haphazard and when one looks at other countries is seems even more random.  But anyway things are beginning to fit a bit better and we approach or look like past peak daily death numbers for most of Europe.  France looks bit erratic in reported deaths per day lately and this is likely to even out and I hope the later estimates come down.  US don't forget is 4-5 times the size of most EU countries and so it's not surprising the numbers are a little larger.  Not surprising that large cities are suffering, cram more people in and there's little space to avoid each other.  Head for the hills like me. 

Good luck with it all, I have retained daily pictures showing how this has progressed, but for now the numbers look pretty stable from day to day with the understandable variation due to pretty messy allocation of deaths to the wrong days.

We missed out on Jamaican hols coming up but best not be stuck in a detention centre there for 2 weeks 😓.

David

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